I was thinking about it when I posted it and saw those numbers. Polymarket didn't predict the Venezuela incident very well either. Trump is being a lot more agressive than polymarket can account for.

My guess about decapitation strike was correct though - with the caveat that Israel actually did that, US was hitting military targets from what I read.

Maybe trumps doing things the betters don't expect in order to profit off of it. That's like how rothschild bet on Wellington to win when most thought napoleon would but he had inside info.