I avoid gambling as much as possible.
Never do lotto scratch cards or casino nonsense. House always wins.
But I am building a studio - hopefully to attain a modicum of success.
How much?
Not gonna gamble for big stakes.
My envelope: 2 million
Other envelope: 1 million or 4 million
Would gamble for small stakes.
My envelope: 2 hundred
Other envelope: 1 hundred or 4 hundred
Ok. You start with the first envelope in your hand. You are compelled to swap it for the second one. These strange men with guns handing you envelopes of money feel moved by your bewilderment and now want to be even more generous. They've given, they've taken, and they've given again. But now they want to give you something worth more, choice. You can opt to get the first envelope back if you want. It has either half or double what's in the second envelope.
Log in
I'd keep it. Not knowing the risks.
Who's holding the second envelope?
Question, is it my money or is it like a game show and I won $2 million and now I can go for it?
The second option.
I avoid gambling as much as possible.
Never do lotto scratch cards or casino nonsense. House always wins.
But I am building a studio - hopefully to attain a modicum of success.
How much?
Not gonna gamble for big stakes.
My envelope: 2 million
Other envelope: 1 million or 4 million
Would gamble for small stakes.
My envelope: 2 hundred
Other envelope: 1 hundred or 4 hundred
If you think about it though, the expected value of the second envelope is 3 million.
?
50% * 4 million +
50% * 1 million =
3 million
Woah. I suck at math. It has an expected value of 2.5 million.
So you just averaged it in a complicated way?
Schrodinger's envelope says it's worth 1 million AND 4 million - until you open it.
That's how expected value works. It's just weighted average weighted by probabilities.
Was that the point of the OP question?
Are there other ways to view it besides expected value and Schrodinger's Cat?
My first comment was to avoid gambling and reduce loss if compelled - logical, IMO.
Ok. You start with the first envelope in your hand. You are compelled to swap it for the second one. These strange men with guns handing you envelopes of money feel moved by your bewilderment and now want to be even more generous. They've given, they've taken, and they've given again. But now they want to give you something worth more, choice. You can opt to get the first envelope back if you want. It has either half or double what's in the second envelope.
Guns changes the entire paradigm.
This thought experiment narrative went from bad to terrible.
Is this happening to you in the D.C. area right now?